World Leaders Gather for the world Summit ( Will They Save The World ? )

By S. STOLBERG

WASHINGTON — When President Bush welcomed leaders from around the world to the White House on Friday night, for what may well be one of the last formal dinners of his administration, the topic was the fragile world economy and the lush menu, belying the financial crisis, featured thyme-roasted rack of lamb. But the real story was in the seating chart.


Economix: Primer on the Economic SummitThere, in the State Dining Room beneath a massive portrait of Abraham Lincoln, to Mr. Bush’s right was President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil, who has complained loudly that developing nations like his were being “infected with problems” not of their making. To Mr. Bush’s left sat a leader with a fat checkbook and the power that comes with it, President Hu Jintao of China.

It was a startling illustration of the way the financial crisis, which originated on Wall Street and has spread around the globe, has remade the international economic world order. By insisting that developing nations be included in the summit meeting, President Bush gave fresh clout to their leaders, each of whom arrived in Washington with his or her own agenda.

But it will be up to a new United States president, Barack Obama, to figure out how to juggle those competing interests — and quickly. The declaration adopted by the leaders on Saturday calls for a second summit just 101 days after Mr. Obama is sworn in. All around Washington this weekend, as black motorcades sped about town and fancy hotels were marked off with the tell-tale police barricades, a sure sign a world leader was in residence, was evidence of Mr. Obama’s challenge.

At the elegant Willard InterContinental Hotel, one of the city’s finest, President Nicolas Sarkozy of France held court after the conference was over. Hours earlier, Mr. Sarkozy was looking chummy with Mr. Bush, giving the president an Obama-style fist bump as the leaders lined up for their official summit “family photo.”

It was Mr. Sarkozy who had pressed a reluctant President Bush into having the summit in the first place, and at the Willard, he was not shy about claiming credit for it — or proclaiming that the era of American hegemony in world finance was over.

“America is the No. 1 power in the world,” he declared. “Is it the only power? No, it isn’t. We are in a new world.”

Over at the Washington Club, an exclusive private club on Dupont Circle, the president of Russia, Dmitri A. Medvedev, addressed an overflow crowd at the Council on Foreign Relations. Mr. Medvedev has been especially combative toward the United States over the economy.

But on Saturday, his talk had little to do with the economy; he spoke at length about the fragile state of United States-Russian relations, and expressed hope that the current chill would thaw under Mr. Obama.

Earlier, at the summit meeting at the National Building Museum, there was lively luncheon talk among the leaders about free trade and the international trade negotiations known as the Doha Round, which have been all but given up for dead. President da Silva of Brazil, who had arrived determined to push for a revival of the trade talks, gave an impassioned speech about what the developing world wants the developed world to do, according to one person who attended.

“We are not asking for assistance; we are not asking for you to give us funds,” Mr. da Silva said, according to this person, who spoke anonymously so he could give a free account of the remarks. “What we want you to do is to fix your own economies. The best thing you can do for us is to return to growth.”

Twenty nations were invited to participate in the meeting, and only two were led by women, neither of whom brought a very strong hand. One of them, Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, has become a close ally of Mr. Bush’s, but the German economy has just slipped into recession, and its banks are suffering from having purchased a raft of toxic mortgage-related assets from the United States.

The other, President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner of Argentina, is in the economic doghouse with foreign investors, who are pulling their money out of her country after Argentina decided to nationalize $26 billion of private pension funds, raising fears the government was short on cash.

Mrs. Kirchner did little to enhance her reputation for competence when she showed up late for the official photograph on Saturday. She missed the first picture, but the leaders regrouped and took another after she arrived. Mr. Bush, who prides himself on punctuality, just shrugged.

Photographs were the least of his worries; he arrived with an agenda of his own, determined to use the session to lay down a few markers on his way out of office. His first message, aimed at Democrats who are blocking a free trade agreement with Colombia, was that world leaders favor liberal trade rules. Second, he wanted to push back against the notion that free-market capitalism was the root cause of the global meltdown.

On both counts, Mr. Bush seems to have succeeded; the communiqué issued at the meeting’s conclusion said the leaders “underscore the critical importance of rejecting protectionism,” and it was laden with language about the importance of free markets. When the session was over, Mr. Bush emerged to greet reporters and offer a handoff to his successor

Depression Or Recession ??

Crisis Hits Main Street as Employers Cut More Jobs (Update3)
By S. Chandra and R.Miller
(Bloomberg) -- U.S. payrolls plunged in September, signaling the economy may be heading for its worst recession in at least a quarter century as the 13-month-old credit crisis on Wall Street finally hits home on Main Street.
Employers cut the most jobs in five years in September as cash-squeezed companies pulled back in an effort to bolster pinched profits. In its last employment report before Americans choose their next president, the Labor Department said the unemployment rate was 6.1 percent, a climb of 1.4 percentage points from a year before.
``If credit markets remain dysfunctional, the current recession could turn out to be as severe as any in the postwar period,'' said former Federal Reserve governor Lyle Gramley, now senior economic adviser at the Stanford Group Co. in Washington.
The spreading crisis is also having reverberations on the campaign trail, as polls show anxious voters increasingly see Democrat Barack Obama as the candidate best placed to see the U.S. through its economic travails. The unemployment rate has only risen twice in the year leading up to elections since World War II, and in each case the incumbent party lost.
`This country can't afford Senator McCain's plan to give America four more years of the same policies that have devastated our middle class and our economy for the last eight,'' Obama, 47, said in a statement.
McCain's Reaction
Arizona Senator John McCain, 72, took the opportunity to paint his opponent as a tax-and-spend liberal, whose prescriptions would exacerbate the crisis.
``Unlike Senator Obama, I do not believe we will create one single American job by increasing taxes, going on a massive spending binge, and closing off markets,'' McCain said in a statement. ``Our nation cannot afford Senator Obama's higher taxes.''
Job losses accelerated as the credit crisis deepened last month, forcing the failure or government takeovers of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and American International Group Inc.
The figures came hours before the House of Representatives passed a $700 billion rescue plan for the U.S. financial industry pushed by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson. The Senate approved the legislation two days ago after the House rejected an initial version of the bill Sept. 29.
Market Reaction
Stocks rose and Treasury securities fell. The Standard & Poor's 500 index climbed 1.8 percent to 1,134.6 at 1:39 p.m. in New York. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note rose to 3.71 percent from 3.63 percent late yesterday.
Today's report showed that hours worked -- considered a good proxy for the state of the overall economy -- matched the lowest level since records began in 1964. That indicates the likely current recession may be at least as severe as the 1981-82 slump, during which gross domestic product shrank by 2.7 percent.
Payrolls fell by 159,000 in September, the Labor Department said in Washington. Aside from a 9,000 gain in government payrolls, all major categories showed declines except education and healthcare.
``The really bad news here is that job losses are now widespread,'' said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at Global Insight Inc., a Lexington, Massachusetts, forecasting firm. ``The problems in housing and manufacturing are now spreading everywhere. We are in a recession, there is no debate about that.''
Health Services
Even the vibrant health-services industry is showing signs of succumbing to the economy's troubles. Health care employment rose 17,000, about half the average monthly gain for the prior 12 months.
Walgreen Co., the largest U.S. drugstore chain, reported Sept. 29 that its profits rose less than analysts estimated after it posted its smallest sales increase in a decade.
A private report today showed that services-industry growth remained stagnant in September. The Institute of Supply Management's non-manufacturing index slipped to 50.2 from 50.6 the month before. Fifty is the dividing line between growth and expansion.
Total payrolls were forecast to drop 105,000 after declining by a previously estimated 84,000 in August, according to the median of 76 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The jobless rate was projected to remain at 6.1 percent.
Rate Forecasts
Jan Hatzius, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York, said the unemployment rate may eventually rise to more than 7 percent as the credit crunch takes its toll on the economy. If that happens, that would make the overall rise in unemployment the biggest since the early 1980's.
Edelmira Clark, 53, of Chicago, said she was concerned about losing her job as a hotel housekeeper. Her company has already cut her work hours to two days a week.
``I'm trying to find a part-time job in the morning to balance, because I can't do only two days of work,'' said Clark, who immigrated to Chicago from Belize in 1997. ``But a lot of people, my friends, have lost their jobs for good.''
Workers' average hourly wages rose 3 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $18.17 from the prior month. Hourly earnings were 3.4 percent higher than September 2007. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast a 0.3 percent increase from August and a 3.6 percent gain for the 12-month period.
After today, the total decline in payrolls so far this year has reached 760,000. The economy created 1.1 million jobs in 2007.
Americans will go to the polls on Nov. 4 and the October jobs report is due Nov. 7.
`Angry' Voters
``Voters are extremely angry, and they want someone to blame,'' said Scott Anderson, senior economist at Wells Fargo & Co. in Minneapolis.
Obama has opened up a lead over Republican rival John McCain in the aftermath of their first debate and amid growing concerns about the economy, according to a Pew Research Center survey taken Sept. 27 to Sept. 29. A mid-September poll from Washington- based Pew had shown the candidates were in a statistical tie.
Earlier in September, a Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll showed more respondents said Obama would do a better job handling the financial crisis than McCain, and almost half of the voters believed he had better ideas to strengthen the economy than his rival.
Factory Firings
Factory payrolls fell 51,000 after decreasing 56,000 in August. Economists had forecast a drop of 57,000.
Today's report also reflected the housing slump. Payrolls at builders declined 35,000 after falling 13,000. Financial firms decreased payrolls by 17,000, the most since November last year.
Service industries, which include banks, insurance companies, restaurants and retailers, subtracted 82,000 workers after eliminating 16,000 in the previous month. Retail payrolls slid by 40,100 after a 25,400 drop.
In the past month, Hewlett-Packard Co., the world's largest personal-computer maker, announced it will cut 24,600 jobs, and auto-parts maker Federal-Mogul Corp. said it would eliminate 4,000 positions globally.
Marriott International Inc., the world's largest hotel chain, yesterday reported third-quarter profit fell 28 percent as U.S. companies and consumers cut back on travel.
Without action from Congress, ``the resulting credit squeeze could threaten businesses,'' Chief Financial said on a conference call. There are ``tens of thousands of jobs at stake in our company alone, and we are typical.''
Mounting job cuts will further limit consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy. A Bloomberg survey in September predicted spending will be unchanged this quarter, the weakest performance since 1991.
The ISM on Oct. 1 said manufacturing shrank in September at the fastest pace since the last recession in 2001. The odds the central bank will lower its benchmark rate by a half percentage point, to 1.5 percent, were almost 100 percent today, up from 32 percent a week ago.

McCain Bail Out??

McCain Stops at Senate en Route to White House

By M. Shear and Lori Montgomery
Sen. John McCain returned to Washington on Thursday after declaring that he has suspended his campaign, but he appeared largely detached from the flurry of negotiations on a $700 billion economic rescue package that appeared to be headed to a successful conclusion.

McCain's "Straight Talk Air" landed at National Airport just after noon, and McCain's motorcade sped toward the Senate. But by then, senior Democrats and Republicans were already announcing that a deal in principle had been reached.

That news appeared to be somewhat premature as House Republican leader John Boehner told his members that "no deal" had yet been reached. McCain arrived at 3:40 p.m. at the White House, where he and his rival, Sen. Barack Obama, were scheduled to meet with President Bush and congressional leaders at 4 p.m.

The leading Democratic negotiator on the Bush administration's $700 bailout plan accused John McCain of undermining the proposal and prodding House Republicans to lay out a wholly different approach that is opposed by the White House.

"This is the presidential campaign of John McCain undermining what Hank Paulson tells us is essential for the country," said Democratic Rep. Barney Frank, (D-Mass.), chairman of the House Financial Services Committee. "This is McCain at the last minute getting House Republicans to undermine the Paulson approach."

Republican leadership aides reacted incredulously to Frank's broadside, saying there was no way McCain's chief economic adviser, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, could undermine a deal with House Republicans that has never had rank-and-file support.

Holtz-Eakin met this morning with Boehner, House Minority Whip Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) and House Republican Conference Chairman Adam Putnam (R-Fla.), but the GOP leaders did virtually all of the talking, and what they told him was how little support the $700 billion package had with their rank-and-file. When McCain emerged from the back door of Boehner's office in the Capitol, both Holtz-Eakin and Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.), a key McCain ally, said they knew very little about the deal.

GOP aides familiar with the alternative proposal said that it had been in a draft stage for several days, with one adviser saying the lawmakers wanted to unveil it yesterday, but that McCain's entree into the deliberations actually made them wait a day.

The White House meeting was in part the result of McCain's stunning pronouncement Wednesday that he would stop campaigning to return to Washington, where he had urged Bush to convene a summit to address the crisis.

But for most of the afternoon, McCain has not visibly been part of the action on the issue. He was not present when House and Senate negotiators emerged from a two-hour meeting to declare success. That announcement was made by Sen. Christopher J. Dodd (D-Conn.), chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, Sen. Robert F. Bennett (Utah) and Frank.

McCain, by contrast, spent some time in his office with several Republican colleagues, briefly stopped at Boehner's office, then left for lunch at the Capitol's Mansfield Room before returning to his office in the Russell Senate Office Building.

Republican Rep. Spencer Bachus (Ala.) said he had spoken to McCain yesterday, had breakfast with two McCain advisers this morning and spoke to McCain again immediately after today's meeting. But, Bachus said, "John's not trying to call the shots for the House caucus, I can tell you that. He's just opposed to the plan in its present form."

Frank reacted angrily to Bachus's statements, insisting that lawmakers were well on their way toward an agreement they could put to a vote, and that this afternoon's meeting at the White House was largely irrelevent.

"We'll be glad to go and tell them there really isn't that much of a deadlock to break," Frank said. "But I'm always glad to go to the White House."

McCain aides expressed cautious optimism, saying that there is "no deal until there's a deal," but McCain made no comments to the reporters trailing him around the Capitol.

Meanwhile, the status of the planned Friday night debate with Obama remained up in the air Thursday afternoon. Senior McCain adviser Mark Salter said, "We've got to see," when asked whether the debate would go on as planned.

McCain said on Wednesday that the debate should be postponed so that the two candidates, the president and the congressional leadership could lock themselves in a room for 100 hours to solve the economic crisis.

Obama arrived in Washington later in the afternoon, accompanied by one Senate staffer. Democrats cried foul when a White House list of attendees indicated that McCain planned to take a campaign aide, former Congressional Budget Office director Doug Holtz-Eakin, with him to the White House meeting.