Sales of U.S. new homes rose in June more than forecast up 23% .....

Sales of U.S. new homes rose in June more than forecast following an unprecedented collapse the prior month, a signal the worst of the slump triggered by the end of a government tax credit is over.

Purchases increased 24 percent from May to an annual pace of 330,000, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. The rate was the second-lowest in data going back to 1963 after May’s downwardly revised 267,000 pace.



The lowest mortgage rates on record may help underpin demand, stabilizing the industry that triggered the worst recession since the 1930s. Even so, increasing foreclosures are swelling the number of unsold existing homes, putting pressure on prices and keeping buyers on the sidelines as unemployment hovers near 10 percent and the economy cools.



“We’ll probably reach an equilibrium level over the next couple of months and I wouldn’t be surprised if we slog along the bottom,” Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Pierpont Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut, said before the report. “Until we get a more definitive turn in growth, in particular employment, housing demand is going to remain very soft.”



Stocks extended prior gains following the report. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.6 percent to 1,108.8 at 10:04 a.m. in New York. The S&P Supercomposite Homebuilder Index climbed 1.9 percent.



Exceeds Forecast



Economists forecast sales would rise 3.3 percent to an annual pace of 310,000, according to the median of 73 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 260,000 to 360,000. The government had initially estimated May sales at a 300,000 rate.



The median price decreased 0.6 percent from June 2009 to $213,400.



Purchases increased in three of four regions, led by a 46 percent jump in the Northeast and a 33 [percent surge in the South, the largest area. Demand dropped 6.6 percent in the West to a record low 57,000 pace.



The supply of homes at the current sales rate fell to 7.6 months’ worth from 9.6 months in May. There were 210,000 new houses on the market at the end of June, the fewest since 1968.



To become eligible for a federal incentive worth up to $8,000, buyers had to sign contracts by April 30 and close deals by the end of last month. The surge in demand prior to the April deadline prompted the government this month to extend the closing deadline until Sept. 30 to ensure buyers had enough time to complete transactions.



Exiting Homes



Purchases of previously-owned homes, which are tabulated when a contract closes, fell a less-than-forecast 5.1 percent in June, sustained by a backlog of deals waiting to settle, figures from the National Association of Realtors showed last week.



New home sales are calculated when a contract is signed. The drop in sales in May came after demand reached an almost two-year high the prior month, according to last month’s Commerce Department data.



Builder shares have dropped this year as the housing outlook dimmed. The Standard & Poor’s Supercomposite Homebuilder Index, which includes Toll Brothers Inc. and Lennar Corp., has fallen 5.4 percent from Dec. 31 through July 23, while the S&P 500 Index is down 1.1 percent.



With the deadline for signing a contract now past, it will be up to advances in the labor market to support home sales. Private U.S. companies added 83,000 jobs in June, fewer than economists had forecast, and initial jobless claims have averaged 449,700 this month, a sign firings remain elevated.



Mounting Foreclosures



Another challenge to new home sales is the rising tide of foreclosures. Home seizures jumped 38 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, RealtyTrac Inc. said last week, putting lenders on pace to claim more than 1 million properties this year.



NVR Inc., based in Reston, Virginia, said last week the original June 30 closing deadline to qualify for the tax incentive resulted in a “surge in settlement activity” in the second quarter, with closings jumping 63 percent from the same time a year earlier. New orders fell six percent in the second quarter to 2,559 units.



Homebuilders turned more pessimistic this month, with the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo confidence index dropping to 14, the lowest level since April 2009, according to data released last week.



by: C. Schliserman

USA Housing sales ,drop 16.7% !

Sales of U.S. existing homes plunged 16.7% in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.45 million from 6.54 million in November as a popular tax credit was set to expire, a national real estate trade group estimated Monday.
The 16.7% percentage decline from November to December was the largest on record, dating back to 1968, the National Association of Realtors reported.
The decline was larger than the 11% drop to 5.80 million that was expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Read our complete economic calendar and consensus forecast.

News Hub: Largest Real Estate Deal Goes Bust

Tishman Speyer's deal for Stuyvesant Town and Peter Cooper Village, which was the biggest real estate deal at the time, may end up in bankruptcy, the News Hub panel reports.

Sales in December were up 15% compared with December 2008. Read the full report on the NAR website.
The median sales price rose to $178,300 in December, up 1.5% compared with a year earlier. It's the first year-over-year increase in prices since August 2007.
For all of 2009, sales rose 4.9% to 5.16 million compared with 2008. The median price fell 12.5% in 2009.
"The market is going through a period of swings driven by the tax credit," said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the real estate lobbying group. "We're likely to have another surge in the spring."
"Job creation is the key to a continued recovery in the second half of the year," Yun said, adding he believed there was some sustainable momentum in the market. December's sales pace was up 11% compared with June's.

Sales had surged about 40% from June to November in response to the federal tax credit for first-time buyers, which was set to expire on Nov. 30. As it happened, the tax credit was extended until June 2010 and expanded to cover repeat buyers.
But buyers didn't know the credit would be extended when they were shopping for homes in October. In order to close in December, they would have had to sign a sales contract by early November at the latest. Existing-home sales are recorded at the closing.
First-time buyers accounted for 43% of sales in December, down from 51% in November.
Inventories of unsold homes on the market dropped 6.6% to 3.29 million, the lowest since March 2006. The inventory figures are not seasonally adjusted. Inventories usually fall about 8% this time of year.

sales in homes go higher in 2010 & Nov. 2009 ??

Bloomberg) -- Sales of existing U.S. homes in November rose to the highest level in almost three years as first-time buyers rushed to take advantage of a government tax credit and lower prices.

Purchases increased 7.4 percent to a 6.54 million annual rate, exceeding the highest estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, figures from the National Association of Realtors showed today in Washington. Another report showed the economy grew a less-than-forecast 2.2 percent in the third quarter as companies cut stockpiles, pointing to manufacturing gains at the start of 2010.

The housing market is getting a boost from efforts by the government and Federal Reserve to stabilize the industry at the center of the worst recession since the 1930s. Improved consumer spending combined with record decreases in inventories will promote production, which may keep the world’s largest economy growing into 2010.

The economy is “rebounding again pretty much across the board,” said Steven Wieting, managing director of economic and market analysis at Citigroup Global Markets Inc. in New York. “We will see somewhat stronger growth,” he said, adding “it’s not going to be one of these dramatic recoveries.”

Stocks rose and Treasury securities fell after the reports. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.4 percent to 1,118.79 at 1:28 p.m. in New York, and the S&P Homebuilder Supercomposite Index was up 3.8 percent. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 3.74 percent from 3.68 percent late yesterday.

Slower Expansion

The economy grew at a 2.2 percent annual rate in the third quarter, down from a prior estimate of 2.8 percent, revised figures from the Commerce Department showed today. Companies curbed spending and cut inventories at an even faster pace, leading to a slower pace of expansion.

Existing home sales were projected to rise to a 6.25 million annual rate, according to the median forecast of 69 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 5.2 million to 6.5 million. The NAR revised October’s reading down to a 6.09 million pace from an initially reported 6.1 million rate.

First-time buyers accounted for 51 percent of sales last month, and 71 percent of the houses sold cost less than $250,000, the report from the real-estate agents’ group showed. The figures indicate the government’s tax credit helped boost demand.

Mortgage Rates

Fed debt purchases are helping keep mortgage rates close to record lows, while President Barack Obama’s Nov. 7 extension and expansion of the tax credit through April may provide short-term impetus to sales and construction.

The central bank last week signaled it would keep lending rates low for “an extended period” to foster growth. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage was 4.94 percent last week and has averaged 4.85 percent since the end of October, according to Freddie Mac.

“Housing is on a solid footing through to the spring markets,” said Derek Holt, an economist at Scotia Capital Inc. in Toronto, who forecast a rise to 6.5 million units. “But once foreclosed, unlisted homes go back on the market and homebuyers’ incentives come off, we’re looking at a weaker back half of next year.”

Purchases of existing homes rose 44 percent in November compared with a year earlier, the biggest increase on record. The median price was $172,600, down 4.3 percent from November 2008. The figure is influenced by the mix of sales and the drop reflects the growing proportion of lower-priced houses.

Home Prices

A report from the Federal Housing Finance Agency in Washington showed home prices fell 1.9 percent in October from a year earlier. The group’s U.S. housing index is down 10.8 percent from the April 2007 peak.

The number of previously owned unsold homes on the market fell 1.3 percent to 3.52 million. At the current sales pace, it would take 6.5 months to sell those houses compared with 7 months at the end of October. The ratio is the lowest since December 2006.

The share of homes sold as foreclosures or otherwise distressed properties was 33 percent, said Lawrence Yun, the agents group’s chief economist.

“The tax credit had the intended impact of drawing buyers in and lowering inventory,” Yun said in a news conference. “An estimated 2 million buyers have taken advantage of the credit.”

Single-Family Sales

The report showed sales of existing single-family homes rose 8.5 percent to an annual rate of 5.77 million. Sales of condos and co-ops were unchanged at a 770,000 rate.

Toll Brothers Inc., the largest U.S. luxury-home builder, projected deliveries may fall by as much as 33 percent in the 12 months through October 2010, and the average selling price may drop as low as $540,000.

“We believe it may take some time for Americans to regain confidence in our economy, their job status and the benefits of home ownership,” Robert Toll, chief executive officer at Toll Brothers, said in a Dec. 3 statement. “We anticipate a gradual recovery in housing, similar to the one that occurred in the early 1990s.”

B. Wilis